Important dates: (blue dashed lines) delineating mask mandate / advice changes for “fully-vaccinated individuals”:
Comment: Why a 7-day moving average? Wisconsin tends to have cyclical patterns in testing results, with low spots typically on Mondays (this may be due to lower testing on weekends)
Various 7-day average trends
Estimated Active, split by Age group: Estimated recovery time from health experts varies between 10-20 days, with a nontrivial proportion of cases being long-term / on-going.
Definitions
Case fatality rate, etc: Need to add definitions and compute to table
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 2021 | 11631 | 53128 | 415 | 110 | 14 | 19 |
| July 01 2021 | 11633 | 53139 | 416 | 110 | 16 | 19 |
| July 02 2021 | 11635 | 53132 | 416 | 110 | 18 | 20 |
| July 03 2021 | 11635 | 53147 | 416 | 110 | 12 | 19 |
| July 04 2021 | 11635 | 53169 | 416 | 110 | 10 | 18 |
| July 05 2021 | 11637 | 53194 | 416 | 110 | 9 | 20 |
| July 06 2021 | 11637 | 53187 | 417 | 110 | 8 | 20 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 0 | 0.0 | 0% | 0 | 0% | 1 | 0.01% |
| 10-19 | 0 | 0.0 | 0% | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| 20-29 | 0 | 0.4 | 33.3% | 3 | 0.01% | 5 | 0.02% |
| 30-39 | 0 | 0.3 | 33.3% | 3 | 0.02% | 7 | 0.05% |
| 40-49 | 0 | 0.1 | 11.1% | 1 | 0.01% | 2 | 0.02% |
| 50-59 | 0 | -0.3 | 0% | 0 | 0% | 1 | 0.01% |
| 60-69 | 0 | 0.0 | 11.1% | 1 | 0.01% | 2 | 0.02% |
| 70+ | 0 | 0.1 | 11.1% | 1 | 0.01% | 3 | 0.03% |
| All ages | 0 | 0.7 | 100% | 9 | 0.01% | 21 | 0.02% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 2021 | 7517 | 31362 | 300 | 95 | 6 | 8 |
| July 01 2021 | 7518 | 31359 | 301 | 95 | 7 | 8 |
| July 02 2021 | 7518 | 31344 | 301 | 95 | 5 | 8 |
| July 03 2021 | 7518 | 31343 | 301 | 95 | 5 | 7 |
| July 04 2021 | 7518 | 31362 | 301 | 95 | 4 | 7 |
| July 05 2021 | 7518 | 31377 | 301 | 95 | 3 | 7 |
| July 06 2021 | 7518 | 31379 | 301 | 95 | 3 | 5 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 0 | 0.0 | 0% | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| 10-19 | 0 | 0.0 | 0% | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| 20-29 | 0 | -0.1 | -33.3% | -1 | -0.01% | -1 | -0.01% |
| 30-39 | 0 | 0.1 | 33.3% | 1 | 0.01% | 1 | 0.01% |
| 40-49 | 0 | 0.0 | 0% | 0 | 0% | 2 | 0.03% |
| 50-59 | 0 | 0.0 | 66.7% | 2 | 0.02% | 2 | 0.02% |
| 60-69 | 0 | 0.0 | 0% | 0 | 0% | 1 | 0.01% |
| 70+ | 0 | 0.1 | 33.3% | 1 | 0.01% | 0 | 0% |
| All ages | 0 | 0.1 | 100% | 3 | 0% | 5 | 0.01% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 2021 | 5899 | 21096 | 283 | 84 | 7 | 16 |
| July 01 2021 | 5900 | 21095 | 283 | 85 | 7 | 13 |
| July 02 2021 | 5900 | 21094 | 283 | 85 | 7 | 9 |
| July 03 2021 | 5901 | 21104 | 283 | 85 | 8 | 10 |
| July 04 2021 | 5901 | 21109 | 283 | 85 | 7 | 9 |
| July 05 2021 | 5902 | 21118 | 283 | 85 | 8 | 9 |
| July 06 2021 | 5902 | 21121 | 283 | 85 | 6 | 9 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 0 | 0.0 | 0% | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| 10-19 | 0 | 0.0 | 16.7% | 1 | 0.02% | 1 | 0.02% |
| 20-29 | 0 | 0.0 | 0% | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| 30-39 | 0 | 0.1 | 16.7% | 1 | 0.02% | 2 | 0.04% |
| 40-49 | 0 | 0.0 | 0% | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| 50-59 | 0 | 0.3 | 66.7% | 4 | 0.06% | 3 | 0.04% |
| 60-69 | 0 | 0.0 | 0% | 0 | 0% | 1 | 0.02% |
| 70+ | 0 | 0.0 | 0% | 0 | 0% | 1 | 0.02% |
| All ages | 0 | 0.4 | 100% | 6 | 0.01% | 8 | 0.02% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 2021 | 12736 | 60215 | 455 | 89 | 7 | 8 |
| July 01 2021 | 12737 | 60223 | 455 | 89 | 8 | 9 |
| July 02 2021 | 12738 | 60198 | 455 | 89 | 9 | 10 |
| July 03 2021 | 12738 | 60193 | 456 | 89 | 8 | 9 |
| July 04 2021 | 12739 | 60242 | 456 | 89 | 7 | 10 |
| July 05 2021 | 12739 | 60266 | 456 | 89 | 5 | 10 |
| July 06 2021 | 12740 | 60261 | 456 | 89 | 6 | 11 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 0 | 0.0 | 0% | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| 10-19 | 0 | 0.1 | 16.7% | 1 | 0.01% | 2 | 0.01% |
| 20-29 | 0 | 0.0 | 33.3% | 2 | 0.01% | 2 | 0.01% |
| 30-39 | 0 | 0.0 | 0% | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| 40-49 | 0 | 0.1 | 0% | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| 50-59 | 1 | 0.3 | 50% | 3 | 0.02% | 4 | 0.03% |
| 60-69 | 0 | 0.0 | 0% | 0 | 0% | 2 | 0.01% |
| 70+ | 0 | 0.0 | 0% | 0 | 0% | 1 | 0.01% |
| All ages | 1 | 0.6 | 100% | 6 | 0.01% | 11 | 0.01% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 2021 | 45268 | 360353 | 1582 | 315 | 65 | 103 |
| July 01 2021 | 45284 | 360584 | 1583 | 315 | 80 | 104 |
| July 02 2021 | 45291 | 360800 | 1580 | 315 | 85 | 98 |
| July 03 2021 | 45306 | 361199 | 1582 | 315 | 95 | 111 |
| July 04 2021 | 45311 | 361583 | 1584 | 315 | 97 | 108 |
| July 05 2021 | 45317 | 361718 | 1584 | 315 | 94 | 113 |
| July 06 2021 | 45318 | 361934 | 1588 | 315 | 88 | 112 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 0 | 0.3 | 5.7% | 5 | 0.01% | 5 | 0.01% |
| 10-19 | 0 | 0.7 | 6.8% | 6 | 0.01% | 9 | 0.01% |
| 20-29 | 0 | 1.6 | 20.5% | 18 | 0.02% | 24 | 0.02% |
| 30-39 | 0 | 2.4 | 28.4% | 25 | 0.03% | 29 | 0.04% |
| 40-49 | 0 | 1.0 | 15.9% | 14 | 0.02% | 23 | 0.04% |
| 50-59 | 0 | 0.9 | 10.2% | 9 | 0.01% | 11 | 0.02% |
| 60-69 | 0 | 1.1 | 9.1% | 8 | 0.01% | 8 | 0.01% |
| 70+ | 1 | 0.4 | 3.4% | 3 | 0.01% | 3 | 0.01% |
| All ages | 1 | 8.4 | 100% | 88 | 0.02% | 112 | 0.02% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 2021 | 612801 | 2985815 | 32181 | 7308 | 668 | 957 |
| July 01 2021 | 612909 | 2986176 | 32223 | 7314 | 754 | 966 |
| July 02 2021 | 612994 | 2985923 | 32250 | 7315 | 761 | 946 |
| July 03 2021 | 613073 | 2986827 | 32282 | 7322 | 744 | 974 |
| July 04 2021 | 613091 | 2989132 | 32297 | 7322 | 646 | 958 |
| July 05 2021 | 613117 | 2990309 | 32311 | 7323 | 610 | 962 |
| July 06 2021 | 613152 | 2990914 | 32331 | 7323 | 583 | 919 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 4 | 5.1 | 7.4% | 43 | 0.01% | 68 | 0.01% |
| 10-19 | 3 | 5.9 | 9.3% | 54 | 0.01% | 96 | 0.01% |
| 20-29 | 4 | 10.7 | 18.2% | 106 | 0.01% | 171 | 0.02% |
| 30-39 | 8 | 13.4 | 20.1% | 117 | 0.02% | 177 | 0.02% |
| 40-49 | 6 | 7.3 | 12% | 70 | 0.01% | 119 | 0.02% |
| 50-59 | 2 | 6.4 | 14.1% | 82 | 0.01% | 125 | 0.02% |
| 60-69 | 4 | 5.7 | 9.9% | 58 | 0.01% | 85 | 0.01% |
| 70+ | 4 | 5.4 | 9.1% | 53 | 0.01% | 78 | 0.01% |
| All ages | 35 | 60.0 | 100% | 583 | 0.01% | 919 | 0.02% |
Source: Minnesota’s safe learning plan is very direct, very precise, with scientific basis. Determined on a local level.
Definitions (corresponding / similar to MN plan):
and a set of SUGGESTED GUIDELINES based on the Minnesota reference:
| Criteria 2wk | Criteria 2wk20s | Criteria daily7 | Suggestion |
|---|---|---|---|
| > 25 | > 30 | – | urge extra caution |
| > 28 | > 45* | decreasing | consider staying home and watching class recordings (rather than attending in-person) and visit online OH |
| > 28 | > 45* | steady to increasing | strongly encouraged to stay home and watch class recordings (attend in-person only as absolutely needed) and visit online OH. |
| > 30 | > 50 | decreasing | ’’ ’’ ’’ |
| > 30 | > 50 | steady to increasing | based on the cited criteria from Minnesota, safety of in-person classes no longer seems supportable |
*adjusted to reflect a corresponding proportion of the top cut-off.
| Eau Claire 2wk | Eau Claire 2wk10s | Eau Claire 2wk20s | Eau Claire current daily7 | Eau Claire past daily7 | Eau Claire posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 0 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 1.9 | 6.8% |
Important Resources:
| Chippewa 2wk | Chippewa current daily7 | Chippewa past daily7 | Chippewa posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.8 | 0.1 | 0.7 | 4.5% |
| Barron 2wk | Barron current daily7 | Barron past daily7 | Barron posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 8.6% |
| La Crosse 2wk | La Crosse 2wk10s | La Crosse 2wk20s | La Crosse current daily7 | La Crosse past daily7 | La Crosse posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 7.3% |
| Dane 2wk | Dane 2wk10s | Dane 2wk20s | Dane current daily7 | Dane past daily7 | Dane posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 1.3 | 2.3 | 8.4 | 4.3 | 3.2% |
| Wisconsin 2wk | Wisconsin 2wk10s | Wisconsin 2wk20s | Wisconsin current daily7 | Wisconsin past daily7 | Wisconsin posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.6 | 1.3 | 2.3 | 60 | 65.6 | 6.4% |
Important Resources:
I devised plots that are similar to those found, for example, at the following locations:
Masks Should I wear a mask in enclosed public spaces? Unequivocally, YES. References for reasoning, using a current (as of July 8) accumulation of over 70 references. A few of my favorites (modeling-wise) are:
A couple more in the works:
Media articles / letters summarizing scientific publications:
Predicting cumulative deaths in state
[1] "The number of cumulative deaths, at a lag of 21 days, are approximately 0.7 times number of cumulative cases to the 0.69 power."
[1] "We thus predict that on 2021-07-28 the cumulative number of deaths in WI will be 6513"
Comparing county-wide active case rates in counties with colleges