Daily

Column

Important dates: (blue dashed lines) delineating mask mandate / advice changes for “fully-vaccinated individuals”:

Comment: Why a 7-day moving average? Wisconsin tends to have cyclical patterns in testing results, with low spots typically on Mondays (this may be due to lower testing on weekends)

Eau Claire

Chippewa

Barron

La Crosse

Dane

Wisconsin

Column

Estimated Active, split by Age group: Estimated recovery time from health experts varies between 10-20 days, with a nontrivial proportion of cases being long-term / on-going.

  • First plot is conservative (10-day total) estimate
  • Second plot is 14-day total used in MN Safe-Learning plan

Eau Claire

Chippewa

Barron

La Crosse

Dane

Wisconsin

By the Numbers

Column

Definitions

Case fatality rate, etc: Need to add definitions and compute to table

Eau Claire

Eau Claire cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
June 30 2021 11631 53128 415 110 14 19
July 01 2021 11633 53139 416 110 16 19
July 02 2021 11635 53132 416 110 18 20
July 03 2021 11635 53147 416 110 12 19
July 04 2021 11635 53169 416 110 10 18
July 05 2021 11637 53194 416 110 9 20
July 06 2021 11637 53187 417 110 8 20
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 0 0.0 0% 0 0% 1 0.01%
10-19 0 0.0 0% 0 0% 0 0%
20-29 0 0.4 33.3% 3 0.01% 5 0.02%
30-39 0 0.3 33.3% 3 0.02% 7 0.05%
40-49 0 0.1 11.1% 1 0.01% 2 0.02%
50-59 0 -0.3 0% 0 0% 1 0.01%
60-69 0 0.0 11.1% 1 0.01% 2 0.02%
70+ 0 0.1 11.1% 1 0.01% 3 0.03%
All ages 0 0.7 100% 9 0.01% 21 0.02%

Chippewa

Chippewa cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
June 30 2021 7517 31362 300 95 6 8
July 01 2021 7518 31359 301 95 7 8
July 02 2021 7518 31344 301 95 5 8
July 03 2021 7518 31343 301 95 5 7
July 04 2021 7518 31362 301 95 4 7
July 05 2021 7518 31377 301 95 3 7
July 06 2021 7518 31379 301 95 3 5
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 0 0.0 0% 0 0% 0 0%
10-19 0 0.0 0% 0 0% 0 0%
20-29 0 -0.1 -33.3% -1 -0.01% -1 -0.01%
30-39 0 0.1 33.3% 1 0.01% 1 0.01%
40-49 0 0.0 0% 0 0% 2 0.03%
50-59 0 0.0 66.7% 2 0.02% 2 0.02%
60-69 0 0.0 0% 0 0% 1 0.01%
70+ 0 0.1 33.3% 1 0.01% 0 0%
All ages 0 0.1 100% 3 0% 5 0.01%

Barron

Barron cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
June 30 2021 5899 21096 283 84 7 16
July 01 2021 5900 21095 283 85 7 13
July 02 2021 5900 21094 283 85 7 9
July 03 2021 5901 21104 283 85 8 10
July 04 2021 5901 21109 283 85 7 9
July 05 2021 5902 21118 283 85 8 9
July 06 2021 5902 21121 283 85 6 9
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 0 0.0 0% 0 0% 0 0%
10-19 0 0.0 16.7% 1 0.02% 1 0.02%
20-29 0 0.0 0% 0 0% 0 0%
30-39 0 0.1 16.7% 1 0.02% 2 0.04%
40-49 0 0.0 0% 0 0% 0 0%
50-59 0 0.3 66.7% 4 0.06% 3 0.04%
60-69 0 0.0 0% 0 0% 1 0.02%
70+ 0 0.0 0% 0 0% 1 0.02%
All ages 0 0.4 100% 6 0.01% 8 0.02%

La Crosse

La Crosse cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
June 30 2021 12736 60215 455 89 7 8
July 01 2021 12737 60223 455 89 8 9
July 02 2021 12738 60198 455 89 9 10
July 03 2021 12738 60193 456 89 8 9
July 04 2021 12739 60242 456 89 7 10
July 05 2021 12739 60266 456 89 5 10
July 06 2021 12740 60261 456 89 6 11
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 0 0.0 0% 0 0% 0 0%
10-19 0 0.1 16.7% 1 0.01% 2 0.01%
20-29 0 0.0 33.3% 2 0.01% 2 0.01%
30-39 0 0.0 0% 0 0% 0 0%
40-49 0 0.1 0% 0 0% 0 0%
50-59 1 0.3 50% 3 0.02% 4 0.03%
60-69 0 0.0 0% 0 0% 2 0.01%
70+ 0 0.0 0% 0 0% 1 0.01%
All ages 1 0.6 100% 6 0.01% 11 0.01%

Dane

Dane cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
June 30 2021 45268 360353 1582 315 65 103
July 01 2021 45284 360584 1583 315 80 104
July 02 2021 45291 360800 1580 315 85 98
July 03 2021 45306 361199 1582 315 95 111
July 04 2021 45311 361583 1584 315 97 108
July 05 2021 45317 361718 1584 315 94 113
July 06 2021 45318 361934 1588 315 88 112
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 0 0.3 5.7% 5 0.01% 5 0.01%
10-19 0 0.7 6.8% 6 0.01% 9 0.01%
20-29 0 1.6 20.5% 18 0.02% 24 0.02%
30-39 0 2.4 28.4% 25 0.03% 29 0.04%
40-49 0 1.0 15.9% 14 0.02% 23 0.04%
50-59 0 0.9 10.2% 9 0.01% 11 0.02%
60-69 0 1.1 9.1% 8 0.01% 8 0.01%
70+ 1 0.4 3.4% 3 0.01% 3 0.01%
All ages 1 8.4 100% 88 0.02% 112 0.02%

Wisconsin

Wisconsin cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
June 30 2021 612801 2985815 32181 7308 668 957
July 01 2021 612909 2986176 32223 7314 754 966
July 02 2021 612994 2985923 32250 7315 761 946
July 03 2021 613073 2986827 32282 7322 744 974
July 04 2021 613091 2989132 32297 7322 646 958
July 05 2021 613117 2990309 32311 7323 610 962
July 06 2021 613152 2990914 32331 7323 583 919
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 4 5.1 7.4% 43 0.01% 68 0.01%
10-19 3 5.9 9.3% 54 0.01% 96 0.01%
20-29 4 10.7 18.2% 106 0.01% 171 0.02%
30-39 8 13.4 20.1% 117 0.02% 177 0.02%
40-49 6 7.3 12% 70 0.01% 119 0.02%
50-59 2 6.4 14.1% 82 0.01% 125 0.02%
60-69 4 5.7 9.9% 58 0.01% 85 0.01%
70+ 4 5.4 9.1% 53 0.01% 78 0.01%
All ages 35 60.0 100% 583 0.01% 919 0.02%

Column

Source: Minnesota’s safe learning plan is very direct, very precise, with scientific basis. Determined on a local level.

Definitions (corresponding / similar to MN plan):

  • 2wk: Two-week case total (most recent 14 days), rate per 10K of county population
  • 2wk10s: Approximate two-week case total, rate per 10K of 10-19 population
  • 2wk20s: Approximate two-week case total, rate per 10K of 20-29 population; since over 50% of students on campus are in early 20s
  • daily7: Daily new-case running average (average over 7 days)
  • posratedaily7 (as a percent): Daily positive-test rate, running average (average over 7 days)

and a set of SUGGESTED GUIDELINES based on the Minnesota reference:

Criteria 2wk Criteria 2wk20s Criteria daily7 Suggestion
> 25 > 30 urge extra caution
> 28 > 45* decreasing consider staying home and watching class recordings (rather than attending in-person) and visit online OH
> 28 > 45* steady to increasing strongly encouraged to stay home and watch class recordings (attend in-person only as absolutely needed) and visit online OH.
> 30 > 50 decreasing ’’ ’’ ’’
> 30 > 50 steady to increasing based on the cited criteria from Minnesota, safety of in-person classes no longer seems supportable

*adjusted to reflect a corresponding proportion of the top cut-off.

Eau Claire

Eau Claire 2wk Eau Claire 2wk10s Eau Claire 2wk20s Eau Claire current daily7 Eau Claire past daily7 Eau Claire posratedaily7
2 0 2.4 0.9 1.9 6.8%

Important Resources:

Chippewa

Chippewa 2wk Chippewa current daily7 Chippewa past daily7 Chippewa posratedaily7
0.8 0.1 0.7 4.5%

Barron

Barron 2wk Barron current daily7 Barron past daily7 Barron posratedaily7
1.8 0.4 0.4 8.6%

La Crosse

La Crosse 2wk La Crosse 2wk10s La Crosse 2wk20s La Crosse current daily7 La Crosse past daily7 La Crosse posratedaily7
0.9 1.2 0.9 0.6 0.9 7.3%

Dane

Dane 2wk Dane 2wk10s Dane 2wk20s Dane current daily7 Dane past daily7 Dane posratedaily7
2 1.3 2.3 8.4 4.3 3.2%

Wisconsin

Wisconsin 2wk Wisconsin 2wk10s Wisconsin 2wk20s Wisconsin current daily7 Wisconsin past daily7 Wisconsin posratedaily7
1.6 1.3 2.3 60 65.6 6.4%

Important Resources:

Cumulative

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Eau Claire

Chippewa

Barron

La Crosse

Dane

Wisconsin

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Eau Claire

Chippewa

Barron

La Crosse

Dane

Wisconsin

References

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Reliable Updated Visuals

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Modeling

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Predicting cumulative deaths in state

  • WI correpondence between Cumulative cases and deaths (at time lag)
    • Starting with late May, after daily tests regularly above 6000
[1] "The number of  cumulative deaths, at a lag of 21 days, are approximately 0.7 times number of cumulative cases to the 0.69 power."
[1] "We thus predict that on 2021-07-28 the cumulative number of deaths in WI will be 6513"

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Comparing county-wide active case rates in counties with colleges

  • Portage county (Stevens Point): gray
  • Eau Claire county (Eau Claire): blue
  • Dane county (Madison): green
  • La Crosse county (La Crosse): red